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Vitoria vs Nautico Recife — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Vitoria
Vitoria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
2/21/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 4Estádio Manoel Barradas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vitoria57%
×Draw23%
Nautico Recife20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria
1.83
Nautico Recife
1.00

Vitoria creates 83% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 25 away

creates per match

Vitoria
1.91
Nautico Recife
1.20

allows per match

Vitoria
0.81
Nautico Recife
1.76

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par
Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Nautico Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw
80%
Vitoria or Nautico Recife
77%
Draw or Nautico Recife
43%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+
32%
Nautico Recife wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals
84%
Vitoria 2+ goals
54%
Vitoria 3+ goals
28%
Nautico Recife 1+ goals
63%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
26%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)
74%
Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.81 · 32 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.91 + Nautico Recife defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.83

Nautico Recife attack 1.20 + Vitoria defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vitoria scores more
57%
level
23%
Nautico Recife scores more
20%

Vitoria at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria vs Nautico Recife

Vitoria and Nautico Recife drew 1-1 in Copa do Nordeste on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Manoel Barradas in Salvador, Bahia.