Vitoria 0–1 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

Vitoria

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nautico Recife

6/7/2021

Serie B · Round 2Estádio Manoel Barradas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Vitoria52%

×Draw28%

Nautico Recife20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.75

Vitoria

1.40

Nautico Recife

0.75

Vitoria creates 87% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 69 away

1.20

creates per match

0.78

0.72

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Vitoria

1.20

Nautico Recife

0.78

allows per match

Vitoria

0.72

Nautico Recife

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

80%

Vitoria or Nautico Recife

72%

Draw or Nautico Recife

48%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

26%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

75%

Vitoria 2+ goals

41%

Vitoria 3+ goals

17%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

53%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

17%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

72%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.20 + Nautico Recife defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nautico Recife attack 0.78 + Vitoria defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vitoria scores more

52%

level

28%

Nautico Recife scores more

20%

Vitoria at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff