Vitoria 1–0 Juventude: Result & Stats | Serie A

Vitoria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juventude

Gustavo Silva 45+3' (pen)

9/21/2024

Serie A · Round 27Estádio Manoel Barradas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Vitoria53%

×Draw25%

Juventude23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.96

Vitoria

1.61

Juventude

0.96

Vitoria creates 68% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 38 away

1.41

creates per match

0.86

1.05

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Vitoria

1.41

Juventude

0.86

allows per match

Vitoria

1.05

Juventude

1.82

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Vitoria-0.15scores less

Juventude+0.06on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

77%

Vitoria or Juventude

75%

Draw or Juventude

47%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

28%

Juventude wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

80%

Vitoria 2+ goals

48%

Vitoria 3+ goals

22%

Juventude 1+ goals

62%

Juventude 2+ goals

25%

Juventude 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

70%

Juventude (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.41 + Juventude defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

Juventude attack 0.86 + Vitoria defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vitoria scores more

53%

level

25%

Juventude scores more

23%

Vitoria at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Alan Ruschel

Juventude · D

7.7

Match Events

21'

Zé Marcos

39'

Carlos Eduardo

45+10'

Janderson

45'

Carlos EduardoPenalty confirmed

45+12'

Jádson

45+1'

Gabriel Vasconcelos

45+3'

Gustavo SilvaPenalty

50'

Matheuzinho

58'

Lucas Barbosa

63'

Willian Oliveira← Filipe Machado

63'

Everaldo← Carlos Eduardo

66'

David da Hora← Marcelinho

66'

R. Carrillo← Gilberto

67'

Luís Oyama← Yan Souto

71'

Ricardo Ryller← Luan Silva

74'

Lawan← Janderson

74'

Zé Hugo← Gustavo Silva

78'

Mandaca← Lucas Barbosa

78'

Gabriel Inocêncio← Nenê

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitoriaJuventude

Overview

36%Possession64%

13Total Shots11

1.09Expected Goals (xG)0.90

4Corners5

12Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots11

2On Target2

8Off Target6

3Blocked3

3Inside Box6

10Outside Box5

Passing

36%Possession64%

264Total Passes469

198Accurate Passes405

75%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0