Juventude 2–0 Vitoria: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventude

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vitoria

Gabriel Taliari 52', 8'

3/29/2025

Serie A · Round 1Estadio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Juventude42%

×Draw28%

Vitoria30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchVitoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.06

Juventude

1.30

Vitoria

1.06

Juventude creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 45 away

1.14

creates per match

0.84

1.29

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Juventude

1.14

Vitoria

0.84

allows per match

Juventude

1.29

Vitoria

1.47

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Juventude+0.12scores more

Vitoria+0.09on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Vitoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

70%

Juventude or Vitoria

72%

Draw or Vitoria

58%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

19%

Vitoria wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

73%

Juventude 2+ goals

37%

Juventude 3+ goals

14%

Vitoria 1+ goals

65%

Vitoria 2+ goals

29%

Vitoria 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

58%

Vitoria (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Vitoria away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.14 + Vitoria defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vitoria attack 0.84 + Juventude defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventude scores more

42%

level

28%

Vitoria scores more

30%

Juventude at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Gabriel Taliari

Juventude · F

8.6

Match Events

8'

Gabriel Taliari↳ Abner

26'

37'

38'

42'

45+1'

ÊnioGoal cancelled

46'

Ze Marcos← Neris

46'

Erick← Ronald Lopes

46'

Leo Pereira← Gustavo Silva

50'

Lucas Halter

52'

Gabriel Taliari

67'

Emerson Batalla

69'

Mauricio Garcez← Gabriel Taliari

69'

Petterson Novaes← Enio

69'

Reginaldo← Ewerthon

70'

Ricardo Ryller

74'

Willian Oliveira← Pepe

74'

Fabricio← Wellington Rato

81'

Felipinho← Alan Ruschel

89'

Vitor Pernambuco← E. Batalla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeVitoria

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots13

0.77Expected Goals (xG)0.49

3Corners5

16Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots13

4On Target5

3Off Target3

2Blocked5

8Inside Box6

1Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

295Total Passes531

231Accurate Passes452

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

-0.50Goals Prevented-0.50

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

Serie A: Juventude 2–0 Vitoria

Juventude beat Vitoria 2-0 in Serie A on March 29, 2025.

Goals: Gabriel Taliari (8', 52').

Vitoria controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi in Caxias do Sul.

Juventude vs Vitoria — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Juventude 2–0 Vitoria