Vitoria vs JD Somorrostro: Preview & Prediction

Vitoria

CANC

00:00

JD Somorrostro

4/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Campo Ellakuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vitoria49%

×Draw27%

JD Somorrostro24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchJD Somorrostro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.90

Vitoria

1.40

JD Somorrostro

0.90

Vitoria creates 56% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 28 away

1.55

creates per match

1.07

0.73

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Vitoria

1.55

JD Somorrostro

1.07

allows per match

Vitoria

0.73

JD Somorrostro

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par

JD Somorrostro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

JD Somorrostro →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

76%

Vitoria or JD Somorrostro

73%

Draw or JD Somorrostro

51%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

24%

JD Somorrostro wins by 2+

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

75%

Vitoria 2+ goals

41%

Vitoria 3+ goals

17%

JD Somorrostro 1+ goals

59%

JD Somorrostro 2+ goals

23%

JD Somorrostro 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

67%

JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 78 matches

JD Somorrostro away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.55 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

JD Somorrostro attack 1.07 + Vitoria defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vitoria scores more

49%

level

27%

JD Somorrostro scores more

24%

Vitoria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vitoria host JD Somorrostro

April 19, 2020: Vitoria take on JD Somorrostro in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vitoria host JD Somorrostro at Campo Ellakuri.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Vitoria vs JD Somorrostro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Vitoria host JD Somorrostro