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JD Somorrostro vs Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

JD Somorrostro
JD Somorrostro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vitoria
Vitoria
11/23/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Estadio El Malecón Muskiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

JD Somorrostro31%
×Draw28%
Vitoria41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JD Somorrostro
1.05
Vitoria
1.27

Vitoria creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 78 away

creates per match

JD Somorrostro
1.43
Vitoria
1.37

allows per match

JD Somorrostro
1.17
Vitoria
0.68

finishing

JD Somorrostro+0.00on par
Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JD Somorrostro ↓

Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

JD Somorrostro or draw
59%
JD Somorrostro or Vitoria
72%
Draw or Vitoria
69%

Winning margin

JD Somorrostro wins by 2+
12%
Vitoria wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

JD Somorrostro 1+ goals
65%
JD Somorrostro 2+ goals
28%
JD Somorrostro 3+ goals
9%
Vitoria 1+ goals
72%
Vitoria 2+ goals
36%
Vitoria 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)
43%
Vitoria (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JD Somorrostro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Vitoria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JD Somorrostro attack 1.43 + Vitoria defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.05

Vitoria attack 1.37 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

JD Somorrostro scores more
31%
level
28%
Vitoria scores more
41%

Vitoria at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: JD Somorrostro 2–0 Vitoria

JD Somorrostro beat Vitoria 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Malecón Muskiz in Muskiz.