Vitoria 2–2 Cruzeiro: Result & Stats | Serie A

Vitoria

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Cruzeiro

Alerrandro 29'

Osvaldo 25' (pen)

J. Dinenno 84', 78'

8/19/2024

Serie A · Round 23Estádio Manoel Barradas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 43+ matches

Vitoria45%

×Draw27%

Cruzeiro28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.00

Vitoria

1.36

Cruzeiro

1.00

Vitoria creates 36% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 43 away

1.41

creates per match

0.96

1.05

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Vitoria

1.41

Cruzeiro

0.96

allows per match

Vitoria

1.05

Cruzeiro

1.31

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Vitoria-0.15scores less

Cruzeiro+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Cruzeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

72%

Vitoria or Cruzeiro

73%

Draw or Cruzeiro

55%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

21%

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

74%

Vitoria 2+ goals

39%

Vitoria 3+ goals

16%

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

63%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

26%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

62%

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.41 + Cruzeiro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cruzeiro attack 0.96 + Vitoria defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vitoria scores more

45%

level

27%

Cruzeiro scores more

28%

Vitoria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Dinenno

Cruzeiro · F

9.3

Match Events

25'

OsvaldoPenalty

29'

Alerrandro

38'

Neris

41'

Edu← Alerrandro

46'

Carlos Eduardo← Filipe Machado

46'

Matheus Pereira← Lucas Silva

50'

Mateus Vital← Á. Barreal

65'

Kaiki← Marlon

65'

J. Dinenno← Ramiro

69'

Zé Hugo← Osvaldo

69'

Léo Naldi← Ricardo Ryller

78'

Leo Naldi

78'

J. Dinenno↳ L. Romero

79'

Walace← L. Romero

82'

Caio Vinícius← Luan Silva

83'

Matheus Pereira

84'

J. Dinenno↳ João Marcelo

90+6'

Walace

90+2'

Lucas Villalba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitoriaCruzeiro

Overview

30%Possession70%

14Total Shots25

1.41Expected Goals (xG)1.23

4Corners7

10Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots25

5On Target12

5Off Target8

4Blocked5

9Inside Box16

5Outside Box9

Passing

30%Possession70%

216Total Passes495

149Accurate Passes420

69%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

10Saves3

0.36Goals Prevented0.36

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

Serie A: Vitoria 2–2 Cruzeiro

Vitoria and Cruzeiro drew 2-2 in Serie A on August 19, 2024.

Goals: Osvaldo (25' pen), Alerrandro (29'), J. Dinenno (78', 84').

Cruzeiro controlled possession (70%) and registered 25 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Manoel Barradas in Salvador, Bahia.

Vitoria vs Cruzeiro — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Vitoria 2–2 Cruzeiro