Cruzeiro 3–1 Vitoria: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cruzeiro

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vitoria

Arthur Gomes 75'

Rafa Silva 58'

Matheus Pereira 50'

Lucas Silva 52' (OG)

4/28/2024

Serie A · Round 4Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 42+ matches

Cruzeiro52%

×Draw27%

Vitoria21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CruzeiroExpected goals in this matchVitoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.83

Cruzeiro

1.47

Vitoria

0.83

Cruzeiro creates 77% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 45 away

1.47

creates per match

0.84

0.82

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Cruzeiro

1.47

Vitoria

0.84

allows per match

Cruzeiro

0.82

Vitoria

1.47

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.22scores more

Vitoria+0.09on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Vitoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw

79%

Cruzeiro or Vitoria

73%

Draw or Vitoria

48%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

26%

Vitoria wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

77%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

43%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

18%

Vitoria 1+ goals

56%

Vitoria 2+ goals

20%

Vitoria 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

71%

Vitoria (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 42 matches

Vitoria away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.47 + Vitoria defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Vitoria attack 0.84 + Cruzeiro defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cruzeiro scores more

52%

level

27%

Vitoria scores more

21%

Cruzeiro at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Matheus Pereira

Cruzeiro · F

7.9

Match Events

46'

Á. Barreal← J. Cifuentes

50'

Matheus Pereira

52'

Lucas SilvaOwn goal

58'

Rafa Silva↳ Á. Barreal

62'

Jean Mota← Mateus Gonçalves

62'

Janderson← Osvaldo

62'

Léo Naldi← Luan Silva

68'

Mateus Vital← Lucas Silva

73'

Léo Gamalho← Alerrandro

75'

Arthur Gomes↳ Á. Barreal

78'

Zé Ivaldo

82'

Rafael Elias← Rafa Silva

82'

João Pedro← Arthur Gomes

84'

Daniel Júnior← Matheuzinho

90+1'

Rafael Elias

90'

Neris← Matheus Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzeiroVitoria

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots8

1.20Expected Goals (xG)0.30

10Corners4

12Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots8

6On Target3

5Off Target5

4Blocked0

7Inside Box3

8Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

469Total Passes404

399Accurate Passes340

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.64Goals Prevented-0.64

Discipline

12Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0