Vitoria 0–1 Botafogo PB: Result & Stats | Serie C

Vitoria

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Botafogo PB

Adilson Bahia 47'

5/18/2022

Serie C · Round 6Estádio Manoel Barradas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vitoria45%

×Draw31%

Botafogo PB24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchBotafogo PB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.74

Vitoria

1.13

Botafogo PB

0.74

Vitoria creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 88 away

1.15

creates per match

0.86

0.62

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Vitoria

1.15

Botafogo PB

0.86

allows per match

Vitoria

0.62

Botafogo PB

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par

Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Botafogo PB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

76%

Vitoria or Botafogo PB

69%

Draw or Botafogo PB

55%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

19%

Botafogo PB wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

68%

Vitoria 2+ goals

31%

Vitoria 3+ goals

11%

Botafogo PB 1+ goals

52%

Botafogo PB 2+ goals

17%

Botafogo PB 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

65%

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.15 + Botafogo PB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Botafogo PB attack 0.86 + Vitoria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vitoria scores more

45%

level

31%

Botafogo PB scores more

24%

Vitoria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Leandro Camilo← Leilson

32'

Iury

35'

Dani Bolt← Iury

42'

47'

48'

49'

50'

Roberto← Miller

50'

Thiaguinho← Luidy

61'

Alan Grafite← Adilson Bahia

61'

Edvan← Lucas Gabriel

67'

Eduardo← Dionísio

67'

Rafinha← Guilherme Queiroz

72'

Anderson Paraíba← Nádson

72'

Pablo← PH

Vitoria

Botafogo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Fabiano Soares

35'▲Dani Bolt←▼Iury

50'▲Roberto←▼Miller

50'▲Thiaguinho←▼Luidy

67'▲Eduardo←▼Dionísio

67'▲Rafinha←▼Guilherme Queiroz

Vitoria substitutes

BoltRobertoThiaguinhoEduardoRafinhaDaltonPedroSantiagoLazaroniRenanGomesAntônio

Manager: Gerson Gusmão

28'▲Leandro Camilo←▼Leilson

61'▲Alan Grafite←▼Adilson Bahia

61'▲Edvan←▼Lucas Gabriel

72'▲Anderson Paraíba←▼Nádson

72'▲Pablo←▼PH

Botafogo PB substitutes

CamiloGrafiteEdvanParaíbaPabloLucasAdrianoCoutinhoSchulzVitor