Botafogo PB 1–1 Vitoria: Result & Stats

Botafogo PB

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vitoria

Lohan 63'

C. Silva 10'

7/22/2020

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 8Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Botafogo PB45%

×Draw28%

Vitoria27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo PBExpected goals in this matchVitoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.97

Botafogo PB

1.35

Vitoria

0.97

Botafogo PB creates 39% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.32

creates per match

1.23

0.72

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Botafogo PB

1.32

Vitoria

1.23

allows per match

Botafogo PB

0.72

Vitoria

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

Vitoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw

73%

Botafogo PB or Vitoria

72%

Draw or Vitoria

55%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+

21%

Vitoria wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals

74%

Botafogo PB 2+ goals

39%

Botafogo PB 3+ goals

15%

Vitoria 1+ goals

62%

Vitoria 2+ goals

25%

Vitoria 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)

63%

Vitoria (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Vitoria away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 1.32 + Vitoria defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Vitoria attack 1.23 + Botafogo PB defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Botafogo PB scores more

45%

level

28%

Vitoria scores more

27%

Botafogo PB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

C. Silva

31'

J. Caicedo

40'

Fred

42'

V. Joao

46'

Erivelton← G. Correia

46'

K. Alves dos Santos← Dico

49'

Vico

62'

Fernando Neto← Magrao Gerson

63'

Lohan

66'

Marcos Vinicius

71'

Vico← Goncalves Felipe

71'

Rodrigo

74'

Juninho

75'

Donato← Donato

77'

78'

88'

90'

90'

90+5'

Dico← M. Xavier

Botafogo

Vitoria

1

4

16

2

7

8

3

5

10

9

11

1

3

6

14

7

10

25

26

8

9

⚽

Lohan

23

Kelvin

Manager: Mauro Fernandes

46'▲Erivelton←▼G. Correia

46'▲K. Alves dos Santos←▼Dico

75'▲—←▼Donato

78'▲Lohan←▼Mario Sergio

90+5'▲Dico←▼M. Xavier

Botafogo PB substitutes

30Gabriel11Dico22Donato33Sérgio4Xavier28Correia27Simón19Pimentinha12Pires

Manager: Bruno Pivetti

62'▲Fernando Neto←▼Magrao Gerson

71'▲Vico←▼Goncalves Felipe

88'▲J. Caicedo←▼Eronildo

Vitoria substitutes

20Magrão18Gonçalves23Eron12César14Furtado15Jean13Léo21Jesus19Tenorio22Negueba6Carioca17Viçosa

Copa do Nordeste: Botafogo PB 1–1 Vitoria

Botafogo PB and Vitoria drew 1-1 in Copa do Nordeste on July 22, 2020.

Goals: C. Silva (10'), Lohan (63').

The match was played at Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho.

Botafogo PB vs Vitoria — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa do Nordeste: Botafogo PB 1–1 Vitoria