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Vitoria vs Bahia — Serie A 2026

Vitoria
Vitoria
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bahia
Bahia
10/17/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 28Barradao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Vitoria45%
×Draw28%
Bahia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria
1.30
Bahia
0.93

Vitoria creates 40% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Vitoria
1.07
Bahia
0.94

allows per match

Vitoria
0.91
Bahia
1.53

finishing

Vitoria-0.25scores less
Bahia+0.23scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Bahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw
73%
Vitoria or Bahia
72%
Draw or Bahia
55%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+
21%
Bahia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals
73%
Vitoria 2+ goals
37%
Vitoria 3+ goals
14%
Bahia 1+ goals
61%
Bahia 2+ goals
24%
Bahia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)
63%
Bahia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Bahia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.07 + Bahia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bahia attack 0.94 + Vitoria defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vitoria scores more
45%
level
28%
Bahia scores more
27%

Vitoria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vitoria 2 – 1 Bahia

Vitoria beat Bahia 2-1 in Serie A on October 17, 2025.

The match was played at Barradao in Salvador.