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Bahia vs Vitoria — Serie A 2026

Bahia
Bahia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vitoria
Vitoria
5/18/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 9Arena Fonte Nova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Bahia56%
×Draw25%
Vitoria19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia
1.58
Vitoria
0.81

Bahia creates 95% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bahia
1.38
Vitoria
0.82

allows per match

Bahia
0.81
Vitoria
1.78

finishing

Bahia+0.62scores more
Vitoria+0.04on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia ↓

Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bahia or draw
81%
Bahia or Vitoria
75%
Draw or Vitoria
44%

Winning margin

Bahia wins by 2+
30%
Vitoria wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bahia 1+ goals
79%
Bahia 2+ goals
47%
Bahia 3+ goals
21%
Vitoria 1+ goals
56%
Vitoria 2+ goals
19%
Vitoria 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bahia (draw refunded)
74%
Vitoria (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.81 · 15 matches

Vitoria away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.78 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia attack 1.38 + Vitoria defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vitoria attack 0.82 + Bahia defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bahia scores more
56%
level
25%
Vitoria scores more
19%

Bahia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Bahia 2–1 Vitoria

Bahia beat Vitoria 2-1 in Serie A on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador.