Vitoria 1–0 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats | Serie A

Vitoria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico-MG

Erick 6'

8/31/2025

Serie A · Round 22Barradao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Vitoria46%

×Draw27%

Atletico-MG27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.97

Vitoria

1.36

Atletico-MG

0.97

Vitoria creates 40% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 36 away

1.40

creates per match

0.95

0.99

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Vitoria

1.40

Atletico-MG

0.95

allows per match

Vitoria

0.99

Atletico-MG

1.32

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Vitoria-0.09on par

Atletico-MG-0.09on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

73%

Vitoria or Atletico-MG

73%

Draw or Atletico-MG

54%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

22%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

74%

Vitoria 2+ goals

39%

Vitoria 3+ goals

16%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

62%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

25%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

63%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.99 · 39 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.40 + Atletico-MG defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Atletico-MG attack 0.95 + Vitoria defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vitoria scores more

46%

level

27%

Atletico-MG scores more

27%

Vitoria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Cuello

Atletico-MG · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

Erick↳ Osvaldo

21'

Gabriel Baralhas

34'

Vitor Hugo

52'

Edu← P. Roberto

59'

Igor Gomes← Dudu

59'

Reinier← Vitor Hugo

63'

Alexsander

66'

Junior Alonso

67'

Matheuzinho← A. Cantalapiedra

68'

Biel← Natanael

75'

Ronald Lopes← Osvaldo

75'

Fabricio← Erick

75'

Carlinhos← Renato Kayzer

80'

Gabriel Menino← Alexsander

80'

Rony← Gustavo Scarpa

90+1'

Willian Oliveira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitoriaAtletico-MG

Overview

30%Possession70%

14Total Shots20

0.85Expected Goals (xG)0.65

2Corners5

20Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots20

4On Target5

7Off Target10

3Blocked5

7Inside Box7

7Outside Box13

Passing

30%Possession70%

229Total Passes530

168Accurate Passes464

73%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

0.45Goals Prevented0.45

Discipline

20Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3