Atletico-MG 2–2 Vitoria: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atletico-MG

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Vitoria

Igor Gomes 88'

Fausto Vera 57'

Matheuzinho 66'

Lucas Halter 48'

4/13/2025

Serie A · Round 3MRV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Atletico-MG45%

×Draw27%

Vitoria27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico-MGExpected goals in this matchVitoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.00

Atletico-MG

1.37

Vitoria

1.00

Atletico-MG creates 37% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 40 away

1.31

creates per match

0.86

1.15

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Atletico-MG

1.31

Vitoria

0.86

allows per match

Atletico-MG

1.15

Vitoria

1.43

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.33scores more

Vitoria+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Vitoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw

73%

Atletico-MG or Vitoria

73%

Draw or Vitoria

55%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

21%

Vitoria wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

75%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

40%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

16%

Vitoria 1+ goals

63%

Vitoria 2+ goals

26%

Vitoria 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

62%

Vitoria (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Vitoria away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 1.31 + Vitoria defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Vitoria attack 0.86 + Atletico-MG defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico-MG scores more

45%

level

27%

Vitoria scores more

27%

Atletico-MG at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Lucas Arcanjo

Vitoria · G

8.7

Match Events

28'

Willian Oliveira

43'

Guilherme Arana

46'

Ricardo Ryller← Willian Oliveira

48'

Lucas Halter↳ Gustavo Silva

54'

Raúl Cáceres

57'

Fausto Vera

58'

Carlos Eduardo← Erick

66'

Matheuzinho

70'

Janderson

71'

Caio Paulista← Guilherme Arana

71'

Bernard← Fausto Vera

75'

Joao Marcelo← Natanael

75'

Pepe← Baralhas

75'

Leo Pereira← Gustavo Silva

84'

Igor Gomes← Gustavo Scarpa

84'

Gabriel Menino← Rubens

88'

Igor Gomes

89'

Edu← Matheuzinho

90+4'

Bernard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Atletico-MGVitoria

Overview

63%Possession37%

33Total Shots9

2.17Expected Goals (xG)1.20

16Corners3

8Fouls10

Shots

33Total Shots9

10On Target4

9Off Target3

14Blocked2

24Inside Box5

9Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

534Total Passes324

462Accurate Passes244

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

0.53Goals Prevented0.53

Discipline

8Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0