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Vitoria Setubal vs União Santarém — Liga 3 2021

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
União Santarém
União Santarém
1/20/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 5Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vitoria Setubal42%
×Draw26%
União Santarém33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.46
União Santarém
1.26

Vitoria Setubal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 44 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.75
União Santarém
1.09

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.43
União Santarém
1.18

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
União Santarém+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

União Santarém →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
67%
Vitoria Setubal or União Santarém
74%
Draw or União Santarém
58%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
20%
União Santarém wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
77%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
43%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
18%
União Santarém 1+ goals
72%
União Santarém 2+ goals
36%
União Santarém 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
56%
União Santarém (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

União Santarém away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.75 + União Santarém defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

União Santarém attack 1.09 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
42%
level
26%
União Santarém scores more
33%

Vitoria Setubal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Setubal vs União Santarém

Vitoria Setubal beat União Santarém 3-1 in Liga 3 on January 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.