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União Santarém vs Vitoria Setubal — Liga 3 2021

União Santarém
União Santarém
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
1/24/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 16Campo Chã das Padeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

União Santarém43%
×Draw27%
Vitoria Setubal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Santarém
1.33
Vitoria Setubal
1.06

União Santarém creates 25% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 28 away

creates per match

União Santarém
1.09
Vitoria Setubal
0.96

allows per match

União Santarém
1.16
Vitoria Setubal
1.57

finishing

União Santarém+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Santarém ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

União Santarém or draw
70%
União Santarém or Vitoria Setubal
73%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
57%

Winning margin

União Santarém wins by 2+
20%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

União Santarém 1+ goals
74%
União Santarém 2+ goals
38%
União Santarém 3+ goals
15%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
65%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
29%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

União Santarém (draw refunded)
59%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Santarém at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Santarém attack 1.09 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.96 + União Santarém defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

União Santarém scores more
43%
level
27%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
30%

União Santarém at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "União Santarém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: União Santarém 4–1 Vitoria Setubal

União Santarém beat Vitoria Setubal 4-1 in Liga 3 on January 24, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Chã das Padeiras in Marvila.