Vitoria Setubal 0–3 União de Leiria: Result & Stats

Vitoria Setubal

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

União de Leiria

12/17/2022

Liga 3 · Round 12Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vitoria Setubal35%

×Draw25%

União de Leiria40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria SetubalExpected goals in this matchUnião de Leiria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.49

Vitoria Setubal

1.36

União de Leiria

1.49

União de Leiria creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

1.75

creates per match

1.55

1.43

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal

1.75

União de Leiria

1.55

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal

1.43

União de Leiria

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

União de Leiria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw

60%

Vitoria Setubal or União de Leiria

75%

Draw or União de Leiria

65%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

16%

União de Leiria wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

74%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

39%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

16%

União de Leiria 1+ goals

77%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

44%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

46%

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.75 + União de Leiria defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.36

União de Leiria attack 1.55 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more

35%

level

25%

União de Leiria scores more

40%

União de Leiria at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff