União de Leiria 4–0 Vitoria Setubal: Result & Stats

União de Leiria

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Vitoria Setubal

8/21/2022

Liga 3 · Round 1Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

União de Leiria59%

×Draw23%

Vitoria Setubal18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União de LeiriaExpected goals in this matchVitoria Setubal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.88

União de Leiria

1.82

Vitoria Setubal

0.88

União de Leiria creates 107% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

2.07

creates per match

0.96

0.80

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

União de Leiria

2.07

Vitoria Setubal

0.96

allows per match

União de Leiria

0.80

Vitoria Setubal

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

Vitoria Setubal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw

82%

União de Leiria or Vitoria Setubal

77%

Draw or Vitoria Setubal

41%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+

34%

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals

84%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

54%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

27%

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

59%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

22%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

77%

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 2.07 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.82

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.96 + União de Leiria defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

União de Leiria scores more

59%

level

23%

Vitoria Setubal scores more

18%

União de Leiria at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff