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Vitoria Setubal vs Tondela — Primeira Liga 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tondela
Tondela
8/12/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 1Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitoria Setubal44%
×Draw27%
Tondela29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.36
Tondela
1.06

Vitoria Setubal creates 28% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 85 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.89
Tondela
1.00

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.11
Tondela
1.84

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Tondela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
71%
Vitoria Setubal or Tondela
73%
Draw or Tondela
56%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
20%
Tondela wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
74%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
39%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
16%
Tondela 1+ goals
65%
Tondela 2+ goals
29%
Tondela 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
60%
Tondela (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Tondela defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tondela attack 1.00 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
44%
level
27%
Tondela scores more
29%

Vitoria Setubal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Setubal vs Tondela

Vitoria Setubal and Tondela drew 0-0 in Primeira Liga on August 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.