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Tondela vs Vitoria Setubal — Primeira Liga 2018

Tondela
Tondela
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
1/26/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 18Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Tondela36%
×Draw28%
Vitoria Setubal36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tondela
1.16
Vitoria Setubal
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 37 away

creates per match

Tondela
1.05
Vitoria Setubal
0.89

allows per match

Tondela
1.42
Vitoria Setubal
1.27

finishing

Tondela+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tondela or draw
64%
Tondela or Vitoria Setubal
72%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
64%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+
15%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals
69%
Tondela 2+ goals
32%
Tondela 3+ goals
11%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
69%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
32%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)
50%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.05 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Tondela defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tondela scores more
36%
level
28%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
36%

Tondela at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tondela vs Vitoria Setubal

Vitoria Setubal beat Tondela 3-0 in Primeira Liga on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio João Cardoso in Tondela.