Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Sporting CP B: Result & Stats

Vitoria Setubal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting CP B

Pedro Pinto 90+3'

Afonso Moreira 48'

4/2/2023

Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 1Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vitoria Setubal42%

×Draw25%

Sporting CP B32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria SetubalExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.28

Vitoria Setubal

1.50

Sporting CP B

1.28

Vitoria Setubal creates 17% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 58 away

1.75

creates per match

1.14

1.43

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal

1.75

Sporting CP B

1.14

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal

1.43

Sporting CP B

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw

68%

Vitoria Setubal or Sporting CP B

75%

Draw or Sporting CP B

58%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

21%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

78%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

44%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

19%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

72%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

37%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

57%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.75 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more

42%

level

25%

Sporting CP B scores more

32%

Vitoria Setubal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

32'

35'

48'

60'

Diogo Cabral← Afonso Moreira

65'

A. Moreira

66'

Diogo Sequeira← I. Kanda

74'

Miguel Menino← Diogo Abreu

77'

Daniel Carvalho← Filipe Oliveira

83'

M. Camara

87'

José Varela← Gabriel Lima

87'

Pedro Pinto← Malam Camará

90+4'

Zequinha

90+1'

Francisco Canário← Rodrigo Ribeiro

90+1'

Rodrigo Marquês← Mateus Fernandes

90+3'

Pedro Pinto

Vitoria

Sporting

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Luís Loureiro

66'▲Diogo Sequeira←▼I. Kanda

77'▲Daniel Carvalho←▼Filipe Oliveira

87'▲José Varela←▼Gabriel Lima

87'▲Pedro Pinto←▼Malam Camará

Vitoria Setubal substitutes

SequeiraCarvalhoVarelaPinto

Manager: Filipe Çelikkaya

60'▲Diogo Cabral←▼Afonso Moreira

74'▲Miguel Menino←▼Diogo Abreu

90+1'▲Francisco Canário←▼Rodrigo Ribeiro

90+1'▲Rodrigo Marquês←▼Mateus Fernandes

Sporting CP B substitutes

CabralMeninoCanárioMarquês

Liga 3: Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Sporting CP B

Vitoria Setubal and Sporting CP B drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on April 2, 2023.

Goals: Afonso Moreira (48'), Pedro Pinto (90+3').

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.

Vitoria Setubal vs Sporting CP B — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga 3: Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Sporting CP B