Sporting CP B 1–0 Vitoria Setubal: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vitoria Setubal

1/7/2023

Liga 3 · Round 13CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sporting CP B50%

×Draw26%

Vitoria Setubal24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchVitoria Setubal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.95

Sporting CP B

1.52

Vitoria Setubal

0.95

Sporting CP B creates 60% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 28 away

1.47

creates per match

0.96

0.95

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.47

Vitoria Setubal

0.96

allows per match

Sporting CP B

0.95

Vitoria Setubal

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Vitoria Setubal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

76%

Sporting CP B or Vitoria Setubal

74%

Draw or Vitoria Setubal

50%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

26%

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

78%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

45%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

20%

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

61%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

25%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

68%

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 58 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.47 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.96 + Sporting CP B defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

50%

level

26%

Vitoria Setubal scores more

24%

Sporting CP B at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff