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Vitoria Setubal vs Sporting CP — Primeira Liga 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
1/30/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 19Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitoria Setubal22%
×Draw25%
Sporting CP53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
0.93
Sporting CP
1.59

Sporting CP creates 71% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 137 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.89
Sporting CP
2.07

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.11
Sporting CP
0.96

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
47%
Vitoria Setubal or Sporting CP
75%
Draw or Sporting CP
78%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
7%
Sporting CP wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
61%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
24%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
7%
Sporting CP 1+ goals
80%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
47%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
29%
Sporting CP (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.96 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Sporting CP defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Sporting CP attack 2.07 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
22%
level
25%
Sporting CP scores more
53%

Sporting CP at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Setubal vs Sporting CP

Vitoria Setubal and Sporting CP drew 1-1 in Primeira Liga on January 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.