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Sporting CP vs Vitoria Setubal — Primeira Liga 2018

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
8/18/2018Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 2Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sporting CP62%
×Draw23%
Vitoria Setubal16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
1.81
Vitoria Setubal
0.78

Sporting CP creates 132% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
2.36
Vitoria Setubal
0.89

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.67
Vitoria Setubal
1.27

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
84%
Sporting CP or Vitoria Setubal
77%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
38%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
36%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
84%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
54%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
27%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
54%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
18%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
80%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.67 · 136 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.36 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.81

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Sporting CP defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sporting CP scores more
62%
level
23%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
16%

Sporting CP at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting CP vs Vitoria Setubal

Sporting CP beat Vitoria Setubal 2-1 in Primeira Liga on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon.