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Vitoria Setubal vs SC Braga — Primeira Liga 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SC Braga
SC Braga
9/13/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 5Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitoria Setubal27%
×Draw27%
SC Braga46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.02
SC Braga
1.40

SC Braga creates 37% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 136 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.89
SC Braga
1.68

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.11
SC Braga
1.15

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
SC Braga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

SC Braga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
54%
Vitoria Setubal or SC Braga
73%
Draw or SC Braga
73%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
10%
SC Braga wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
64%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
27%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
8%
SC Braga 1+ goals
75%
SC Braga 2+ goals
41%
SC Braga 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
38%
SC Braga (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

SC Braga away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + SC Braga defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

SC Braga attack 1.68 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
27%
level
27%
SC Braga scores more
46%

SC Braga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Vitoria Setubal 1–0 SC Braga

Vitoria Setubal beat SC Braga 1-0 in Primeira Liga on September 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.