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SC Braga vs Vitoria Setubal — Primeira Liga 2018

SC Braga
SC Braga
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
2/23/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 22Estádio Municipal de Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SC Braga53%
×Draw25%
Vitoria Setubal22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Braga
1.58
Vitoria Setubal
0.93

SC Braga creates 70% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 37 away

creates per match

SC Braga
1.90
Vitoria Setubal
0.89

allows per match

SC Braga
0.96
Vitoria Setubal
1.27

finishing

SC Braga+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SC Braga or draw
78%
SC Braga or Vitoria Setubal
75%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
47%

Winning margin

SC Braga wins by 2+
28%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SC Braga 1+ goals
79%
SC Braga 2+ goals
47%
SC Braga 3+ goals
21%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
61%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
24%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SC Braga (draw refunded)
70%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.96 · 136 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga attack 1.90 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + SC Braga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SC Braga scores more
53%
level
25%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
22%

SC Braga at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: SC Braga 3–1 Vitoria Setubal

SC Braga beat Vitoria Setubal 3-1 in Primeira Liga on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Braga in Braga.