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Vitoria Setubal vs Pacos Ferreira — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
10/16/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vitoria Setubal36%
×Draw27%
Pacos Ferreira37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.23
Pacos Ferreira
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.20
Pacos Ferreira
1.75

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.80
Pacos Ferreira
1.25

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Pacos Ferreira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
63%
Vitoria Setubal or Pacos Ferreira
73%
Draw or Pacos Ferreira
64%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
15%
Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
71%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
35%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
13%
Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
72%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
36%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
49%
Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.20 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.75 + Vitoria Setubal defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
36%
level
27%
Pacos Ferreira scores more
37%

Pacos Ferreira at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pacos Ferreira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Vitoria Setubal 2–0 Pacos Ferreira

Vitoria Setubal beat Pacos Ferreira 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.