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Vitoria Setubal vs Pacos Ferreira — Primeira Liga 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
7/4/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 30Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitoria Setubal40%
×Draw29%
Pacos Ferreira31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.20
Pacos Ferreira
1.01

Vitoria Setubal creates 19% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 68 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.89
Pacos Ferreira
0.90

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.11
Pacos Ferreira
1.51

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Pacos Ferreira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
69%
Vitoria Setubal or Pacos Ferreira
71%
Draw or Pacos Ferreira
60%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
17%
Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
70%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
34%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
12%
Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
64%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
27%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
57%
Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.20

Pacos Ferreira attack 0.90 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
40%
level
29%
Pacos Ferreira scores more
31%

Vitoria Setubal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Vitoria Setubal 2–3 Pacos Ferreira

Pacos Ferreira beat Vitoria Setubal 3-2 in Primeira Liga on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.