Vitoria Setubal 2–1 Oliveira Hospital

Vitoria Setubal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Oliveira Hospital

5/6/2023

Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 6Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vitoria Setubal49%

×Draw24%

Oliveira Hospital27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria SetubalExpected goals in this matchOliveira Hospital

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.18

Vitoria Setubal

1.66

Oliveira Hospital

1.18

Vitoria Setubal creates 41% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 56 away

1.75

creates per match

0.93

1.43

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal

1.75

Oliveira Hospital

0.93

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal

1.43

Oliveira Hospital

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Oliveira Hospital →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw

73%

Vitoria Setubal or Oliveira Hospital

76%

Draw or Oliveira Hospital

51%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

26%

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

81%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

49%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

23%

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals

69%

Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals

33%

Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

64%

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.75 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.93 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more

49%

level

24%

Oliveira Hospital scores more

27%

Vitoria Setubal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff