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Oliveira Hospital vs Vitoria Setubal — Liga 3 2021

Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
2/5/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 17Estádio Municipal de Tábua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Oliveira Hospital46%
×Draw26%
Vitoria Setubal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveira Hospital
1.48
Vitoria Setubal
1.09

Oliveira Hospital creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 28 away

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.38
Vitoria Setubal
0.96

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.23
Vitoria Setubal
1.57

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw
72%
Oliveira Hospital or Vitoria Setubal
74%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
54%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
23%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
77%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
43%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
19%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
66%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
30%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
62%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.38 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.96 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more
46%
level
26%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
28%

Oliveira Hospital at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oliveira Hospital vs Vitoria Setubal

Oliveira Hospital beat Vitoria Setubal 3-1 in Liga 3 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Tábua in Tábua.