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Vitoria Setubal vs Moncarapachense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moncarapachense
Moncarapachense
1/31/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 14Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Vitoria Setubal50%
×Draw24%
Moncarapachense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.65
Moncarapachense
1.10

Vitoria Setubal creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
2.20
Moncarapachense
1.20

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.00
Moncarapachense
1.10

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Moncarapachense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Moncarapachense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
75%
Vitoria Setubal or Moncarapachense
76%
Draw or Moncarapachense
50%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
27%
Moncarapachense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
81%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
49%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
23%
Moncarapachense 1+ goals
67%
Moncarapachense 2+ goals
30%
Moncarapachense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
66%
Moncarapachense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Moncarapachense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 2.20 + Moncarapachense defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.65

Moncarapachense attack 1.20 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
50%
level
24%
Moncarapachense scores more
25%

Vitoria Setubal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Setubal vs Moncarapachense

Vitoria Setubal beat Moncarapachense 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.