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Moncarapachense vs Vitoria Setubal — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

Moncarapachense
Moncarapachense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
4/28/2024Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 2Estádio da Torrinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moncarapachense29%
×Draw32%
Vitoria Setubal38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moncarapachense
0.83
Vitoria Setubal
1.00

Vitoria Setubal creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Moncarapachense
0.67
Vitoria Setubal
1.00

allows per match

Moncarapachense
1.00
Vitoria Setubal
1.00

finishing

Moncarapachense+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moncarapachense ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Moncarapachense or draw
62%
Moncarapachense or Vitoria Setubal
68%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
71%

Winning margin

Moncarapachense wins by 2+
10%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Moncarapachense 1+ goals
56%
Moncarapachense 2+ goals
20%
Moncarapachense 3+ goals
5%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
63%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
26%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Moncarapachense (draw refunded)
43%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moncarapachense at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moncarapachense attack 0.67 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.00 + Moncarapachense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Moncarapachense scores more
29%
level
32%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
38%

Vitoria Setubal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round: Moncarapachense 1–2 Vitoria Setubal

Vitoria Setubal beat Moncarapachense 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio da Torrinha in Moncarapacho.