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Vitoria Setubal vs Lusitano GC Évora — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Lusitano GC Évora
Lusitano GC Évora
2/27/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 18Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Vitoria Setubal54%
×Draw25%
Lusitano GC Évora22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.65
Lusitano GC Évora
0.95

Vitoria Setubal creates 74% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
2.20
Lusitano GC Évora
0.90

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.00
Lusitano GC Évora
1.10

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Lusitano GC Évora+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Lusitano GC Évora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
78%
Vitoria Setubal or Lusitano GC Évora
75%
Draw or Lusitano GC Évora
46%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
29%
Lusitano GC Évora wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
81%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
49%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
23%
Lusitano GC Évora 1+ goals
61%
Lusitano GC Évora 2+ goals
25%
Lusitano GC Évora 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
71%
Lusitano GC Évora (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Lusitano GC Évora away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 2.20 + Lusitano GC Évora defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lusitano GC Évora attack 0.90 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
54%
level
25%
Lusitano GC Évora scores more
22%

Vitoria Setubal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H: Vitoria Setubal 5–2 Lusitano GC Évora

Vitoria Setubal beat Lusitano GC Évora 5-2 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.