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Lusitano GC Évora vs Vitoria Setubal — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Lusitano GC Évora
Lusitano GC Évora
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
12/23/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 7Campo Do Sport Lisboa e Évora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lusitano GC Évora19%
×Draw22%
Vitoria Setubal59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitano GC Évora
1.00
Vitoria Setubal
1.95

Vitoria Setubal creates 95% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lusitano GC Évora
1.00
Vitoria Setubal
2.70

allows per match

Lusitano GC Évora
1.20
Vitoria Setubal
1.00

finishing

Lusitano GC Évora+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitano GC Évora ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lusitano GC Évora or draw
41%
Lusitano GC Évora or Vitoria Setubal
78%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
81%

Winning margin

Lusitano GC Évora wins by 2+
7%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Lusitano GC Évora 1+ goals
63%
Lusitano GC Évora 2+ goals
26%
Lusitano GC Évora 3+ goals
8%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
86%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
58%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Lusitano GC Évora (draw refunded)
24%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitano GC Évora at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 2.70, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitano GC Évora attack 1.00 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Vitoria Setubal attack 2.70 + Lusitano GC Évora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lusitano GC Évora scores more
19%
level
22%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
59%

Vitoria Setubal at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H: Lusitano GC Évora 1–2 Vitoria Setubal

Vitoria Setubal beat Lusitano GC Évora 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Do Sport Lisboa e Évora in Évora.