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Vitoria Setubal vs GIL Vicente — Primeira Liga 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
2/14/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 21Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitoria Setubal38%
×Draw29%
GIL Vicente33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.07

Vitoria Setubal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 119 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.89
GIL Vicente
1.03

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.11
GIL Vicente
1.46

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

GIL Vicente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
67%
Vitoria Setubal or GIL Vicente
71%
Draw or GIL Vicente
62%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
16%
GIL Vicente wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
69%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
33%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
12%
GIL Vicente 1+ goals
66%
GIL Vicente 2+ goals
29%
GIL Vicente 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
54%
GIL Vicente (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + GIL Vicente defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

GIL Vicente attack 1.03 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
38%
level
29%
GIL Vicente scores more
33%

Vitoria Setubal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Setubal vs GIL Vicente

GIL Vicente beat Vitoria Setubal 2-1 in Primeira Liga on February 14, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.