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GIL Vicente vs Vitoria Setubal — Primeira Liga 2018

GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
8/31/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 4Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

GIL Vicente43%
×Draw28%
Vitoria Setubal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIL Vicente
1.28
Vitoria Setubal
1.00

GIL Vicente creates 28% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 37 away

creates per match

GIL Vicente
1.29
Vitoria Setubal
0.89

allows per match

GIL Vicente
1.11
Vitoria Setubal
1.27

finishing

GIL Vicente+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIL Vicente ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

GIL Vicente or draw
71%
GIL Vicente or Vitoria Setubal
72%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
57%

Winning margin

GIL Vicente wins by 2+
19%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

GIL Vicente 1+ goals
72%
GIL Vicente 2+ goals
37%
GIL Vicente 3+ goals
14%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
63%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
26%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

GIL Vicente (draw refunded)
60%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIL Vicente at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIL Vicente attack 1.29 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.28

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + GIL Vicente defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

GIL Vicente scores more
43%
level
28%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
29%

GIL Vicente at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "GIL Vicente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GIL Vicente vs Vitoria Setubal

GIL Vicente and Vitoria Setubal drew 0-0 in Primeira Liga on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Barcelos.