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Vitoria Setubal vs FC Porto — Primeira Liga 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FC Porto
FC Porto
2/1/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 19Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitoria Setubal21%
×Draw27%
FC Porto52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
0.84
FC Porto
1.47

FC Porto creates 75% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 136 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.89
FC Porto
1.83

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.11
FC Porto
0.79

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

FC Porto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
48%
Vitoria Setubal or FC Porto
73%
Draw or FC Porto
79%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
7%
FC Porto wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
57%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
21%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
5%
FC Porto 1+ goals
77%
FC Porto 2+ goals
43%
FC Porto 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
29%
FC Porto (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

FC Porto away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.79 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + FC Porto defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

FC Porto attack 1.83 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
21%
level
27%
FC Porto scores more
52%

FC Porto at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Vitoria Setubal 0–4 FC Porto

FC Porto beat Vitoria Setubal 4-0 in Primeira Liga on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.