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FC Porto vs Vitoria Setubal — Primeira Liga 2018

FC Porto
FC Porto
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
2/16/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 22Estádio do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Porto63%
×Draw22%
Vitoria Setubal15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Porto
1.83
Vitoria Setubal
0.75

FC Porto creates 144% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 37 away

creates per match

FC Porto
2.40
Vitoria Setubal
0.89

allows per match

FC Porto
0.61
Vitoria Setubal
1.27

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw
85%
FC Porto or Vitoria Setubal
78%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
37%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+
37%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals
84%
FC Porto 2+ goals
54%
FC Porto 3+ goals
28%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
53%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
17%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)
81%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.61 · 136 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 2.40 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.83

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + FC Porto defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FC Porto scores more
63%
level
22%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
15%

FC Porto at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: FC Porto 2–0 Vitoria Setubal

FC Porto beat Vitoria Setubal 2-0 in Primeira Liga on February 16, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Dragão in Porto.