Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Benfica: Result & Stats

Vitoria Setubal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Benfica

3/7/2020

Primeira Liga · Round 24Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitoria Setubal20%

×Draw25%

Benfica55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria SetubalExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.59

Vitoria Setubal

0.85

Benfica

1.59

Benfica creates 87% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 136 away

0.89

creates per match

2.07

1.11

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal

0.89

Benfica

2.07

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal

1.11

Benfica

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw

45%

Vitoria Setubal or Benfica

75%

Draw or Benfica

80%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

6%

Benfica wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

57%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

21%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

5%

Benfica 1+ goals

80%

Benfica 2+ goals

47%

Benfica 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

27%

Benfica (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.81 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Benfica defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Benfica attack 2.07 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more

20%

level

25%

Benfica scores more

55%

Benfica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff