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Benfica vs Vitoria Setubal — Primeira Liga 2018

Benfica
Benfica
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
9/28/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 7Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Benfica64%
×Draw21%
Vitoria Setubal15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
1.95
Vitoria Setubal
0.83

Benfica creates 135% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 37 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.63
Vitoria Setubal
0.89

allows per match

Benfica
0.77
Vitoria Setubal
1.27

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
85%
Benfica or Vitoria Setubal
79%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
36%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
38%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
86%
Benfica 2+ goals
58%
Benfica 3+ goals
31%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
56%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
20%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
81%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.77 · 136 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.63 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.95

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Benfica defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Benfica scores more
64%
level
21%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
15%

Benfica at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benfica 1 – 0 Vitoria Setubal

Benfica beat Vitoria Setubal 1-0 in Primeira Liga on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa.