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Vitoria Setubal vs Alverca — Liga 3 2021

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alverca
Alverca
10/29/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 7Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vitoria Setubal40%
×Draw25%
Alverca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.50
Alverca
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.75
Alverca
1.38

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.43
Alverca
1.24

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Alverca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
65%
Vitoria Setubal or Alverca
75%
Draw or Alverca
60%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
19%
Alverca wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
78%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
44%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
19%
Alverca 1+ goals
75%
Alverca 2+ goals
41%
Alverca 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
53%
Alverca (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.75 + Alverca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Alverca attack 1.38 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
40%
level
25%
Alverca scores more
35%

Vitoria Setubal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Setubal vs Alverca

Vitoria Setubal and Alverca drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.