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Alverca vs Vitoria Setubal — Liga 3 2021

Alverca
Alverca
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
12/8/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 11Campo Futebol Clube Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Alverca54%
×Draw26%
Vitoria Setubal20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca
1.53
Vitoria Setubal
0.83

Alverca creates 84% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

creates per match

Alverca
1.49
Vitoria Setubal
0.96

allows per match

Alverca
0.71
Vitoria Setubal
1.57

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alverca or draw
80%
Alverca or Vitoria Setubal
74%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
46%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+
28%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals
78%
Alverca 2+ goals
45%
Alverca 3+ goals
20%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
56%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
20%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)
73%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 1.49 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.96 + Alverca defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alverca scores more
54%
level
26%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
20%

Alverca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alverca vs Vitoria Setubal

Vitoria Setubal beat Alverca 3-0 in Liga 3 on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Futebol Clube Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.