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Vitoria Guimaraes W vs Valadares Gaia W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Vitoria Guimaraes W
Vitoria Guimaraes W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Valadares Gaia W
Valadares Gaia W
4/3/20261a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 15Academia Vitoria SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vitoria Guimaraes W38%
×Draw28%
Valadares Gaia W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Guimaraes W
1.20
Valadares Gaia W
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 42 away

creates per match

Vitoria Guimaraes W
1.00
Valadares Gaia W
1.14

allows per match

Vitoria Guimaraes W
1.11
Valadares Gaia W
1.40

finishing

Vitoria Guimaraes W+0.00on par
Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Guimaraes W ↓

Valadares Gaia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vitoria Guimaraes W or draw
66%
Vitoria Guimaraes W or Valadares Gaia W
72%
Draw or Valadares Gaia W
62%

Winning margin

Vitoria Guimaraes W wins by 2+
16%
Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vitoria Guimaraes W 1+ goals
70%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 2+ goals
34%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 3+ goals
12%
Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals
68%
Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals
31%
Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Guimaraes W (draw refunded)
52%
Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Guimaraes W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Valadares Gaia W away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Guimaraes W attack 1.00 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.14 + Vitoria Guimaraes W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vitoria Guimaraes W scores more
38%
level
28%
Valadares Gaia W scores more
34%

Vitoria Guimaraes W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vitoria Guimaraes W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Vitoria Guimaraes W 1–1 Valadares Gaia W

Vitoria Guimaraes W and Valadares Gaia W drew 1-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at Academia Vitoria SC.