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Valadares Gaia W vs Vitoria Guimaraes W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Valadares Gaia W
Valadares Gaia W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vitoria Guimaraes W
Vitoria Guimaraes W
11/9/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 6Estadio Dr. Jorge Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Valadares Gaia W48%
×Draw27%
Vitoria Guimaraes W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valadares Gaia W
1.41
Vitoria Guimaraes W
0.92

Valadares Gaia W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 9 away

creates per match

Valadares Gaia W
1.38
Vitoria Guimaraes W
0.78

allows per match

Valadares Gaia W
1.05
Vitoria Guimaraes W
1.44

finishing

Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par
Vitoria Guimaraes W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valadares Gaia W ↓

Vitoria Guimaraes W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Valadares Gaia W or draw
75%
Valadares Gaia W or Vitoria Guimaraes W
73%
Draw or Vitoria Guimaraes W
52%

Winning margin

Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+
24%
Vitoria Guimaraes W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals
76%
Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals
41%
Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals
17%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 1+ goals
60%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 2+ goals
23%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)
66%
Vitoria Guimaraes W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valadares Gaia W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Vitoria Guimaraes W away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.38 + Vitoria Guimaraes W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Vitoria Guimaraes W attack 0.78 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Valadares Gaia W scores more
48%
level
27%
Vitoria Guimaraes W scores more
25%

Valadares Gaia W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Valadares Gaia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Valadares Gaia W 1–1 Vitoria Guimaraes W

Valadares Gaia W and Vitoria Guimaraes W drew 1-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Jorge Sampaio in Porto.