Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vitoria Guimaraes W vs Rio Ave W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Vitoria Guimaraes W
Vitoria Guimaraes W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Ave W
Rio Ave W
10/11/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 4Academia Vitoria SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vitoria Guimaraes W36%
×Draw33%
Rio Ave W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Guimaraes W
0.95
Rio Ave W
0.85

Vitoria Guimaraes W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vitoria Guimaraes W
1.00
Rio Ave W
0.60

allows per match

Vitoria Guimaraes W
1.11
Rio Ave W
0.90

finishing

Vitoria Guimaraes W+0.00on par
Rio Ave W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Guimaraes W ↓

Rio Ave W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Vitoria Guimaraes W or draw
69%
Vitoria Guimaraes W or Rio Ave W
67%
Draw or Rio Ave W
64%

Winning margin

Vitoria Guimaraes W wins by 2+
13%
Rio Ave W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vitoria Guimaraes W 1+ goals
61%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 2+ goals
25%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 3+ goals
7%
Rio Ave W 1+ goals
57%
Rio Ave W 2+ goals
21%
Rio Ave W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Guimaraes W (draw refunded)
54%
Rio Ave W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Guimaraes W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Rio Ave W away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Guimaraes W attack 1.00 + Rio Ave W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Rio Ave W attack 0.60 + Vitoria Guimaraes W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vitoria Guimaraes W scores more
36%
level
33%
Rio Ave W scores more
31%

Vitoria Guimaraes W at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vitoria Guimaraes W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Guimaraes W vs Rio Ave W

Vitoria Guimaraes W and Rio Ave W drew 0-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Academia Vitoria SC.