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Rio Ave W vs Vitoria Guimaraes W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Rio Ave W
Rio Ave W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vitoria Guimaraes W
Vitoria Guimaraes W
3/13/20261a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rio Ave W39%
×Draw31%
Vitoria Guimaraes W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Ave W
1.07
Vitoria Guimaraes W
0.89

Rio Ave W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rio Ave W
0.70
Vitoria Guimaraes W
0.78

allows per match

Rio Ave W
1.00
Vitoria Guimaraes W
1.44

finishing

Rio Ave W+0.00on par
Vitoria Guimaraes W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave W ↓

Vitoria Guimaraes W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rio Ave W or draw
70%
Rio Ave W or Vitoria Guimaraes W
69%
Draw or Vitoria Guimaraes W
61%

Winning margin

Rio Ave W wins by 2+
16%
Vitoria Guimaraes W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rio Ave W 1+ goals
66%
Rio Ave W 2+ goals
29%
Rio Ave W 3+ goals
9%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 1+ goals
59%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 2+ goals
22%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave W (draw refunded)
57%
Vitoria Guimaraes W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave W at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Vitoria Guimaraes W away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave W attack 0.70 + Vitoria Guimaraes W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.07

Vitoria Guimaraes W attack 0.78 + Rio Ave W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rio Ave W scores more
39%
level
31%
Vitoria Guimaraes W scores more
30%

Rio Ave W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rio Ave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Rio Ave W 0–0 Vitoria Guimaraes W

Rio Ave W and Vitoria Guimaraes W drew 0-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on March 13, 2026.