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Vitória ES vs Vilavelhense — Copa Espírito Santo 2024

Vitória ES
Vitória ESadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vilavelhense
Vilavelhense
Unknown 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen)
Unknown 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
6/23/2026Copa Espírito SantoCopa Espírito Santo · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vitória ES64%
×Draw21%
Vilavelhense15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória ES
1.92
Vilavelhense
0.80

Vitória ES creates 140% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vitória ES
1.95
Vilavelhense
0.94

allows per match

Vitória ES
0.67
Vilavelhense
1.88

finishing

Vitória ES+0.00on par
Vilavelhense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória ES ↓

Vilavelhense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vitória ES or draw
85%
Vitória ES or Vilavelhense
79%
Draw or Vilavelhense
36%

Winning margin

Vitória ES wins by 2+
38%
Vilavelhense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vitória ES 1+ goals
85%
Vitória ES 2+ goals
57%
Vitória ES 3+ goals
30%
Vilavelhense 1+ goals
55%
Vilavelhense 2+ goals
19%
Vilavelhense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vitória ES (draw refunded)
81%
Vilavelhense (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória ES at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.67 · 21 matches

Vilavelhense away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória ES attack 1.95 + Vilavelhense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.92

Vilavelhense attack 0.94 + Vitória ES defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Vitória ES scores more
64%
level
21%
Vilavelhense scores more
15%

Vitória ES at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vitória ES will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

120+1'
Penalty
120+1'
Missed penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+3'
Missed penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+4'
Missed penalty
120+4'
Penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitória ES vs Vilavelhense

Vitória ES and Vilavelhense drew 0-0 in Copa Espírito Santo on June 23, 2026.

Goals: ? (120+1' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen).