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Vilavelhense vs Vitória ES — Copa Espírito Santo 2024

Vilavelhense
Vilavelhense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vitória ES
Vitória ES
Unknown 90+13'
Jarles Baiano 45+5' (pen)
Thiago Magatao 90'
Canario 50'
6/17/2026Copa Espírito SantoCopa Espírito Santo · Semi-finalsEstadio Kleber Andrade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vilavelhense24%
×Draw25%
Vitória ES51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilavelhense
1.04
Vitória ES
1.63

Vitória ES creates 57% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Vilavelhense
0.89
Vitória ES
2.05

allows per match

Vilavelhense
1.21
Vitória ES
1.20

finishing

Vilavelhense+0.00on par
Vitória ES+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilavelhense ↓

Vitória ES →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vilavelhense or draw
49%
Vilavelhense or Vitória ES
75%
Draw or Vitória ES
76%

Winning margin

Vilavelhense wins by 2+
9%
Vitória ES wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Vilavelhense 1+ goals
65%
Vilavelhense 2+ goals
28%
Vilavelhense 3+ goals
9%
Vitória ES 1+ goals
80%
Vitória ES 2+ goals
48%
Vitória ES 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vilavelhense (draw refunded)
32%
Vitória ES (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilavelhense at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Vitória ES away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilavelhense attack 0.89 + Vitória ES defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Vitória ES attack 2.05 + Vilavelhense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vilavelhense scores more
24%
level
25%
Vitória ES scores more
51%

Vitória ES at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vitória ES will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
AbudaGoal Disallowed - video review
45+1'
Patrick
45+5'
Jarles BaianoPenalty
50'
Canario
90'
Thiago Magatao
90+13'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Espírito Santo: Vilavelhense 2–2 Vitória ES

Vilavelhense and Vitória ES drew 2-2 in Copa Espírito Santo on June 17, 2026.

Goals: Jarles Baiano (45+5' pen), Canario (50'), Thiago Magatao (90'), ? (90+13').

The match was played at Estadio Kleber Andrade in Cariacica.