Vitória ES 0–1 Rio Branco-VN: Result & Stats

Vitória ES

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rio Branco-VN

Patrick Carvalho 77'

6/6/2026

Copa Espírito Santo · 1st Phase - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vitória ES59%

×Draw23%

Rio Branco-VN17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitória ESExpected goals in this matchRio Branco-VN

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.80

Vitória ES

1.73

Rio Branco-VN

0.80

Vitória ES creates 116% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

1.95

creates per match

0.92

0.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Vitória ES

1.95

Rio Branco-VN

0.92

allows per match

Vitória ES

0.67

Rio Branco-VN

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitória ES+0.00on par

Rio Branco-VN+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória ES ↓

Rio Branco-VN →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vitória ES or draw

83%

Vitória ES or Rio Branco-VN

77%

Draw or Rio Branco-VN

41%

Winning margin

Vitória ES wins by 2+

34%

Rio Branco-VN wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Vitória ES 1+ goals

82%

Vitória ES 2+ goals

52%

Vitória ES 3+ goals

25%

Rio Branco-VN 1+ goals

55%

Rio Branco-VN 2+ goals

19%

Rio Branco-VN 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vitória ES (draw refunded)

78%

Rio Branco-VN (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória ES at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.67 · 21 matches

Rio Branco-VN away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória ES attack 1.95 + Rio Branco-VN defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rio Branco-VN attack 0.92 + Vitória ES defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vitória ES scores more

59%

level

23%

Rio Branco-VN scores more

17%

Vitória ES at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vitória ES will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'

Patrick Carvalho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff