Rio Branco-VN 0–0 Vitória ES: Result & Stats

Rio Branco-VN

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vitória ES

3/9/2025

League #611 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Olímpio Perim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rio Branco-VN25%

×Draw26%

Vitória ES49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Branco-VNExpected goals in this matchVitória ES

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.46

Rio Branco-VN

0.96

Vitória ES

1.46

Vitória ES creates 52% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.75

1.17

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

Rio Branco-VN

1.67

Vitória ES

1.75

allows per match

Rio Branco-VN

1.17

Vitória ES

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Branco-VN+0.00on par

Vitória ES+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Branco-VN ↓

Vitória ES →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rio Branco-VN or draw

51%

Rio Branco-VN or Vitória ES

74%

Draw or Vitória ES

75%

Winning margin

Rio Branco-VN wins by 2+

9%

Vitória ES wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Rio Branco-VN 1+ goals

62%

Rio Branco-VN 2+ goals

25%

Rio Branco-VN 3+ goals

7%

Vitória ES 1+ goals

77%

Vitória ES 2+ goals

43%

Vitória ES 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rio Branco-VN (draw refunded)

34%

Vitória ES (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Branco-VN at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Vitória ES away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Branco-VN attack 1.67 + Vitória ES defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Vitória ES attack 1.75 + Rio Branco-VN defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rio Branco-VN scores more

25%

level

26%

Vitória ES scores more

49%

Vitória ES at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vitória ES will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff